Tropical Storm Melissa is gaining strength over the Caribbean and may become a hurricane within the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). As of the latest 2 a.m. EDT update, the storm is located near 14.2°N and 74.0°W, about 325 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Melissa is moving west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

Forecasts show the storm slowing down before turning northwest and then north later this week. On its current path, Melissa could approach Jamaica and southwestern Haiti by Thursday or Friday. Expected rainfall ranges from 5 to 10 inches in southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with life-threatening flash floods and landslides possible. Eastern Jamaica may receive 4 to 8 inches, while surrounding regions, including Puerto Rico and Aruba, could see 1 to 3 inches.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for southwestern Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica. While Cuba and the Dominican Republic are not yet under warnings, they remain within the forecast cone. Although a direct hit to the U.S. mainland appears unlikely, rough surf and rip currents may impact the East Coast next week. If the storm delays its turn northward, stronger impacts could reach Florida, Cuba, or the Bahamas.

Late-season storms are not unheard of—Hurricanes Nicole (2022) and Zeta (2020) both formed in the fall. Hurricane Erin in August 2025, though it never made landfall, caused severe coastal erosion and hazardous surf along much of the U.S. East Coast due to strong winds and high waves. Melissa may follow a similar pattern even without direct landfall, so residents in at-risk regions are urged to stay informed and prepare for changing conditions.