A powerful El Niño is developing in the Pacific, and new forecasts suggest its influence could be felt across much of the United States this winter. According to the forecast information provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, nine states are currently highlighted for above-normal precipitation: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, California, and Arizona. Forecasters have also reported a very high chance of a strong El Niño continuing through the fall and winter of 2026–27. El Niño occurs when unusually warm ocean temperatures develop across the tropical Pacific, disrupting normal atmospheric patterns and influencing weather thousands of miles away. For parts of the Southeast, that can mean a wetter winter, while California and Arizona may also see increased precipitation. The exact outcome, however, will depend on how the pattern develops over the coming months, and individual storms cannot be predicted this far in advance.

The potential changes extend beyond rainfall and snowfall. El Niño can influence temperatures, storm tracks and precipitation patterns across different regions, sometimes producing a mix of unusually mild conditions and periods of unsettled weather. The Southeast often trends wetter during El Niño winters, while other areas can experience drier or warmer conditions. New York and other parts of the East Coast can be especially difficult to predict, with rain, sleet or snow depending on the timing of cold air and coastal storms. Scientists are closely monitoring ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions to determine how strong this event becomes. While some forecasts describe the developing El Niño as exceptionally strong, experts emphasize that seasonal forecasts are probabilities rather than guarantees. For millions of Americans, the next few months could bring a noticeably different winter pattern, making the evolving forecast one to watch as the season approaches.