A presidential matchup between Donald Trump and Barack Obama may sound impossible, but a new hypothetical poll has given Americans a chance to imagine what it could look like. The Constitution’s 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two elected terms, meaning neither Trump nor Obama could simply pursue another term under the current rules. Still, Trump has repeatedly entertained questions about a possible third term, even saying he would enjoy the idea of facing Obama. Although Obama has not indicated that he plans to return to presidential politics, the possibility has generated plenty of discussion because the two men have shaped American politics for much of the past two decades. In a Daily Mail and J.L. Partners survey of 1,013 registered voters, 52% said they would choose Obama in a hypothetical 2028 contest, while 41% said they would support Trump. The numbers also showed significant differences among demographic groups, with 73% of Hispanic voters and 68% of Black voters choosing Obama in the hypothetical matchup.

The poll becomes even more interesting when compared with other potential Democratic candidates. According to the survey, Obama was the only recent Democratic figure tested who came out ahead of Trump, while hypothetical matchups involving Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris gave Trump the advantage. Obama served two terms from 2009 to 2017, while Trump won the presidency in 2016, lost the 2020 election and returned to the White House after winning in 2024. Despite their very different political careers, they have never faced each other directly on a presidential ballot. For Trump to seek another elected term, however, the Constitution would have to be changed. That would require approval by two-thirds of both chambers of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of the states. For now, an Obama-Trump race remains firmly hypothetical—but the new numbers show that Americans are still fascinated by the possibility.